Why The League Division Series Is Such a Challenge

[This is a re-vamped version of yesterday's post.]

Any team can win or lose any particular series, especially the League Division Series. It's kind of odd, actually, that the LDS is in theory the "least important" postseason series. Certainly, it doesn't carry the cachet of the League Championship Series or World Seriein While some folks may overlook it as a best-of-five series as opposed to a best-of seven, that is precisely the reason it can be so dangerous. The better team has a better chance of winning in a longer series, where they can prove their worth. For example, the Nationals, losers of 103 games, managed to beat the 102-game winning Yankees two out of three times in 2009. If the worst team can win a three-game series, it wouldn't be a stretch to think that any one playoff team could beat another in a five-game series.

A quick examination of the LDS since its inception in 1995 reveals that there is very, very little room for error. Of the 56 series from 1995-2008, the game one winner has won the LDS 40 times. So basically, for teams that slip up and lose their first game, 71.4% of the time they will lose the whole series. From 2007-2008, every team that won their first LDS game also won the series. It may not be so much that a team won its first game as opposed to the fact that they won a game. One win has a much bigger impact in a best-of-five series than in a best-of-seven series. The odd thing is, this seems to result in each individual LDS game having for of an impact than any given World Series game.

As the LDS is the crucial first step in the playoffs, it seems to me that it would make more sense for it to also be a best-of-seven event.

The League Division Series

This is set to be a really exciting postseason. There's no way to make any solid predictions. After all, any team can win or lose any particular series, especially the League Division Series. It's kind of odd, actually, that the LDS is in theory the "least important" postseason series. Certainly, it doesn't carry the cachet of the League Championship Series or World Series. However, it is very, very dangerous in that it's a best-of-five series as opposed to a best-of seven. The better team has a better chance of winning in a longer series, where they can prove their worth. For example, the Nationals, losers of 103 games, managed to beat the 102-game winning Yankees two out of three times this season. If the worst team can win a three-game series, it wouldn't be a stretch to think that any one playoff team could beat another in a five-game series. As the LDS is the crucial first step in the playoffs, it seems to me that it would make more sense for it to also be a best-of-seven event.

Yankees 4, Rays 2 – Team Hits Record Broken by Carl Crawford

The game on September 9th was an epic duel between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays, with the Yankees coming back from behind to win 4-2. But with the Yankees looking like a lock for the playoffs, and the Rays fading ever so quickly from contention, this game might not seem to have had much significance for either team…

But, it was certainly a night for record-breaking! The focus was on Derek Jeter’s pursuit of Lou Gehrig’s 2,721 Yankee hits, which Mr. Jeter successfully tied due to having a three-hit evening. However, while Mr. Jeter tied a team hits record, the Rays’ Carl Crawford stepped in and demolished the old Tampa Bay hits record. He stands in sole position of the most hits in Tampa Bay history, with 1,274.

Tampa Bay has a storied baseball history, from the days of yore when the Devil Rays franchise was born to the more recent times in which the team shed its evil-sounding moniker and ascending in good deeds (and wins) as the sunshine-filled Tampa Bay Rays. The franchise’s hallowed records have been falling quickly over the years, in no small part to due Mr. Crawford, who leads the team in doubles, triples, stolen bases, games played, at bats, and strike outs. The legendary Tampa Bay hits record of 1,273, certainly embedded in the mind of Rays fans everywhere, had been waiting to be Crawford’s next victim. And so, on the evening of September 9, 2009, Carl Crawford, did what he is wont to do… He got a hit. Subsequently, that magical number of 1,273, which has stood the test of time since Crawford went 3 for 4 the day before, finally fell.

Congratulations Mr. Jeter. Hopefully you can follow Mr. Crawford and claim your team’s hits record in sole possession of first place.

Protect the Triple Crown

Well, the Cardinals actually did it. They signed themselves a high-profile hitter in Matt Holliday, giving the team pretty much exactly what they needed. They wasted no time in putting him into the cleanup spot in the lineup, where he can offer vital protection to slugger Albert Pujols. Now instead of the annoying intentional walks given to Pujols by teams too scared to throw something he can hit, these teams will have no choice but to give him some strikes lest Holliday drive in a walked Pujols home.

For those of you on the Pujols Triple Crown watch, this could be good news as well. Pujols leads the league home runs (34) and RBI (90), and he's second in batting average (.328). With Holliday in the lineup, Pujols will have a chance to hit more homers and RBI, so maybe he can stay ahead in those categories. With more chances to hit, though, odds might be against maintaining a high batting average. (Having a high average is a difficult task, but the more at-bats you have, the harder it is to maintain that average, I would guess.) But Pujols has been consistent over his career as far as batting average goes. He's hitting .334 for his career; counting this year, 6 of his 9 seasons have featured an average ranging from .327-.331... That's consistent. Some seasons he hasn't been as consistent, though, such as when he hit .even better - 357 one year and .359 another time. (His "off" year featured a .314 average.)

Bascially, Pujols is a great contender for the Triple Crown. Seems like most players in this situation would just talk about how they're mainly concerned for the team instead of personal glory. Pujols seems like that kind of guy. Nevertheless, with great personal stats and a boost from Holliday, it seems like the Cardinals as a team will benefit indeed.

Favorite Moments of the 2009 All-Star Game

The 2009 All-Star Game was great fun, as the All-Star game is wont to be. Here are a few of the highlights:

Shining star Albert Pujols taking the limelight as he deserves.

President Obama's trip through the American League dugout was fun, especially for an excited Ichiro Suzuki.

Curtis Granderson's triple was pretty awesome. It was a high point in a game that refreshingly avoided the home run.

Aside from several exceptions early in the game, this was largely a feast of excellent fielding and pitching. National Leaguers Pujols, Chase Utley, and Yadier Molina made some great plays. The American League picthers retired 18 batters in a row at one point.

To top it off, defense beat out pitching and hitting to win Carl Crawford the MVP. Usually, the MVP is the guy who either hits the home run with the most runs batted in or the guy who hits the go-ahead home run. Pitchers seem to have a hard time of it, because even good ones get taken out of the game before too long. But defense rarely gets honored. Good for Mr. Crawford!

Chien-Ming Wang Versus the Nationals

Here's hoping Yankee Chien-Ming Wang can turn his season around in tonight's game against the Washington Nationals. Wang has had a rough year as a starter so far, allowing four or more runs in each of his five starts this year. There is hope, though. In May, he appared in eight relief innings with an ERA of only 2.25. Back as a starter in June, though, he has continued to struggle. Despite a .258 winning percentage, the Nationals have a decent lineup set to face Wang, as the team's batting average is ranked 16 out of 30 in the MLB with hitters like Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn. The Nationals' team batting average? Also .258. The Nationals rank fifth in the National League in home runs, and playing in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium might look appealing for them. While they Yankees do have an upper hand, it might still pose a challenge for Wang to get back to his old form. I'm hoping for his success.

A Comparison of Wins Per Inning Pitched

Cy Young has a number of all-time records that would be difficult to beat by today’s pitchers. He has the most games started, complete games, innings pitched, wins and losses. In many of these categories, nobody even comes close. His 511 wins are 94 more than the next guy, and his 7356 innings pitched are 1352.2 more than second place. In the modern day, the most successful pitchers, as far as wins go, is Greg Maddux leads with 355. Maddux is at 13th in innings pitched, but at 5008.1, that’s far less than Young. Of course, the win statistic is widely known as being far from the best measurement of a pitcher’s success and skill. On top of that, pitchers are used in a completely different way, making comparisons between the present and past bordering on the impossible. Regardless of its true worth, the win statistic is nevertheless one that inevitably gets highlighted, and as for comparing players, well, that’s part of the fun of statistics. With this in mind, I indeed attempted a comparison…


I had the notion to check to see which pitcher won the highest percentage of games that they started. For instance, Young won 511 out of 815 starts (62.3%), while Maddux won 355 out of 740 (48.0%). That might not be such a fair comparison, though, since pitchers are generally taken out of games pretty soon these days and don’t have much of a chance at more wins. I thought I might try out wins per innings pitched for a more accurate (and yet still imperfect) comparison.


Here’s the data for some of the pitchers on the top wins list:


1) Cy Young - W: 511 GS: 815 IP: 7356 W per IP: .069
2) Walter Johnson - W: 417 GS 666 IP: 5914.1 W per IP: .071
3) Grover Alexander - W: 373 GS: 600 IP: 5190 W per IP: .072
3) Christy Mathewson - W: 373 GS 551 IP: 4780.2 W per IP: .078
5) Pud Galvin - W: 365 GS: 688 IP: 6003.1 W per IP: .061
6) Warren Spahn - W: 363 GS: 665 IP: 5243.2 W per IP: .069
7) Kid Nichols - W: 361 GS: 561 IP: 5056.1 W per IP: .071
8) Greg Maddux - W: 355 GS: 740 IP: 5008.1 W per IP: .071
9) Roger Clemens - W: 354 GS: 707 IP: 4916.2 W per IP: .072
10) Tim Keefe - W: 342 GS: 594 IP: 5049.2 W per IP: .068


21) Tom Glavine - W: 305 GS: 682 IP: 4413.1 W per IP: .069
24) Randy Johnson - W: 298 GS: 593 IP: 4070 W per IP: .073


The results seem surprisingly consistent, considering that some of these players played as much as a century apart. Aside from Galvin and Mathewson, the remaining ten pitchers all ranged from a W per IP of .068 to .073. At this rate, had Mathewson pitched as many innings as Young, he could have reached around 574 wins. Maddux could have reached 522. Randy Johnson has less innings pitched than anyone else on my list. Had he pitched the same amount as Maddux, for instance, maybe he would have reached 366 wins. Of course, longevity counts for something (quite a lot, actually) in baseball records. Who is to say that Maddux could have kept up the rate of .071 wins per inning pitched had he thrown in 2,000 more innings? Stats like win counts increase with longevity, but percentages (batting average, ERA), tend to get worse as players age. While Cy Young’s 511 wins are impressive, the fact that he kept winning at a rate of .069 per inning pitched throughout 7356 innings is impressive indeed.

He's Back! Ortiz Hits His First Home Run of the Season!

Finally breaking a long home-run drought, Russ Ortiz hit a home run for the Astros in their 4-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on May 19. Ortiz had been homer-less since knocking in two four-baggers for Atlanta in 2003. So far, Ortiz has struggled in 2009, going 2-2 with a 5.81 ERA. Earlier this month, he was taken off the starting rotation and now pitches in relief. Perhaps Ortiz's home run will bring back memories of more successful times. With that 2003 Atlanta team, he won 21 games with a 3.81 ERA... The exact same ERA he has as an 18-game winner with the 1999 Giants in only his second year in the majors. Ortiz managed 15 wins in 2004, but has only won nine games in all the years since.

That lone home run did bring him a bit of glory, perhaps. He became the first person named Ortiz to hit a home run this year. Not only that, his batting average of .222 puts him .011 points ahead of Red Sox slugger David Ortiz's .211 average. Perhaps Big Papi could make a move to the ole pitching mound and make a bit for the Ortiz ERA title...

This is all written in good fun though. I'm now rooting to see both guys hits 40 home runs and win 20 games.

It's Best Not to Be Too Hasty in Pronouncing "The Last to 300 Wins"

When Greg Maddux was nearing 300 wins, everyone was all abuzz about the chance that he would be the last pitcher to achieve this feat. Even Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson chimed in on the issue. Glavine, who thought it might be “kinda cool” to be the last such pitcher, achieved that mark himself in 2007. But once he nabbed that mark, people began to speculate that he could be the last one. Now that Randy Johnson has just won number 298, he, too, looks like he’s going to join the club. Inevitably, an onslaught of “Johnson will be the last” talk will pop up… While the numbers don’t look incredibly encouraging for others to join the club, I doubt Johnson will be the last. In 2004, Dan Daly (excerpt) warned of the dangers of telling athletes that can’t obtain a record. While I’d say that Cy Young’s 511 wins stands as quite possibly the most secure record in baseball due to the changes in use of pitchers, I think it’s reasonable to assume that someone else is bound to reach 300 wins, even if that person hasn’t even begun their career yet.

New Blog Locale...

I've started up a new location for blogging at the Bleacher Report, where I can cover multiple sports. Baseball will still be the main focus, of course. Naturally, I can cross-post the baseball-related stuff here as well, so Yakyuu Shonen isn't going anywhere!

Derek Jeter - Most At-Bats for Any Yankee

Derek Jeter, with 8,103 at-bats with the only team he has ever played for, now has the record for most at-bats with the New York Yankees. This is an interesting point in baseball history for such team-based milestones. In the present day, players have a 162-game schedule,meaning that they are able to achieve higher numbers in things like at-bats than was possible for players of yore. So even though Jeter is fairly young, he was able to reach that total quicker than older Yankees (the fact that he bats high in the order and is rarely injured is a boon as well). One might expect players on other teams to break such milestones due to that longer schedule. However, modern baseball also presents another phenomenon. These days, it is rare for someone to remain on one team for too long. I used to be annoyed by this until I learned how teams forced players to remain on teams without having to bump up their pay (thanks to Curt Flood, things were made more fair). At any rate, players now jump freely from team to team, meaning that despite the 162-game schedule, it would be difficult for modern players to break long-standing team records. However, thanks to their hefty payroll, the Yankees are able to lure their stars to contract after contract in a way that few other teams can. Thus, Jeter has remained a happy Yankee, hanging around long enough to break this record, with other bound to be in his sights.

Japan Wins the 2009 World Baseball Classic

Japan won the World Baseball Classic in an action-packed 10-inning final game against South Korea. I made sure to stay up and watch the whole thing, too, and it was one of those game that people say are 'for the ages," especially if their team wins. I was glad that Japan, the team I was rooting for, did win, but I am also thankful to have watched South Korea's amazing team as well.

Japan and South Korea both have a really exciting style of play. Great defense and a lot of strategic maneuvering about the basepaths as opposed to just having everyone swing for the fences. Of course, the Japanese and South Korean teams can do that as well when necessary. I won't recap the whole game, as anyone interested has probably either watched it or read one of the many news stories floating around the Internet. Suffice to say, I was on the edge of my seat and excited that Japan won its second WBC.

I do have a few thoughts on some of the players from Japan and South Korea.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Japan - I'm glad he won the WBC MVP for the second time. With three wins in the tournament, he was a great choice for the award. I was a bit worried for a second that he might not win, having not pitched in the final game, but at least those choosing the award knew that without his pitching, the team might not have even gotten to the finals. It is interesting that Matsuzaka has won the MVP in both WBC events. Of course, he's obviously a skilled pitcher, but his style of pitching is pretty much the antethesis of what WBC pitching is all about. The WBC employs strict pitch counts, and this limits the amount of time a pitcher can appear in a game. Matsuzaka is known for his high pitch count, as he methodically works the batters no matter how many pitches it takes. Faced with the WBC pitch count limitations, he has nevertheless triumphed in both World Baseball Classics.

Ichiro Suzuki, Japan - His average was a bit low this year, but he stepped it up a notch in that final game. When he came up to bat with two outs in the tenth inning, I knew he was the one person in the world best suited for that at-bat. All he needed to do was hit safely, which would lead to at least one run being driven in. He is one of the best batters for average around, and is fast enough to make it safely to first even if he didn't quite get the hit he wanted. Of course, he ended up driving in the two winning runs.

Kenji Johjima, Japan - He had an off-season in 2007, but I was happy to see him in excellent form in this WBC. Hopefully, it'll carry on to the upcoming MLB season.

Jungkeun Bong, Korea- I had not previously watched this star Korean pitcher before this year's WBC, but he's a pretty amazing guy. Japan may have won, but Bong fought mightly hard. Had South Korea pulled out a win, I would have given him the MVP right away, despite the fact that the team had many other high achievers. The thing that first struck me with Bong, in one of the first-round Pool A games was his incredible speed in picking off runners at first base. Japan has a lot of speedy guys, but I was extreemly worried that they'd get nabbed at first. It seems like pick-offs are generally a rare thing, and sometimes I get tired of seeing pitchers throw to first with no real hopes of catching a runner. Bong, though, he's amazingly fast.

Yong-Kyu Lee, Korea - This guy is amazing. He got hit in the head in a horrible moment a few days ago, but managed to stay with the team. In the final, his helment shattered when he slid into second, and yet he stayed with it. He hit .300 for the WBC to boot. There has to be some recognition for his efforts; a true competitor.